Modelling the potential distribution of three climate zonal tree species for present and future climate in Hungary = Három klímazonális fafaj hazai potenciális elterjedésének modellezése jelenlegi és jövőbeni klímában

The potential distribution and composition rate of beech, sessile oak and Turkey oak were investigated for present and future climates (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) in Hungary. Membership functions were defined using the current composition rate (percentage of cover in forest compartments) of the tree species and the long-term climate expressed by the Ellenberg quotient to model the present and future tree species distribution and composition rate. The simulation results using the regional climate model REMO showed significant decline of beech and sessile oak in Hungary during the 21st century. By the middle of the century only about 35% of the present beech and 75% of the sessile oak stands will remain above their current potential distribution limit. By the end of the century beech forests may almost disappear from Hungary and sessile oak will also be found only along the Southwest border and in higher mountain regions. On the contrary the present occurrences of Turkey oak will be almost entirely preserved during the century however its distribution area will shift to the current sessile oak habitats. | The potential distribution and composition rate of beech, sessile oak and Turkey oak were investigated for present and future climates (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) in Hungary. Membership functions were defined using the current composition rate (percentage of cover in forest compartments) of the tree species and the long-term climate expressed by the Ellenberg quotient to model the present and future tree species distribution and composition rate. The simulation results using the regional climate model REMO showed significant decline of beech and sessile oak in Hungary during the 21st century. By the middle of the century only about 35% of the present beech and 75% of the sessile oak stands will remain above their current potential distribution limit. By the end of the century beech forests may almost disappear from Hungary and sessile oak will also be found only along the Southwest border and in higher mountain regions. On the contrary the present occurrences of Turkey oak will be almost entirely preserved during the century however its distribution area will shift to the current sessile oak habitats

Future of Beech in Southeast Europe from the Perspective of Evolutionary Ecology

The aim of this study is to provide quantitative information on the effect of climaticchange on the growth and vitality of European beech: although the species is considered in itsoptimum highly plastic and adaptable, it becomes climate-sensitive closer to its xeric (lower)distribution limits. The future of beech in Southeast Europe requires special attention because thisregion harbours significant populations living at or near their xeric distribution boundary. Even thoughthe low elevation occurrences are uniquely vulnerable to climatic shifts, observations and modellingstudies pertaining to this region are particularly scarce.Out of climatic factors determining the xeric distributional limits for beech, Ellenberg’s droughtindex (EQ) appeared as the most influential. Growth response analyses in comparative tests haveconfirmed the existence of macroclimatic adaptation of beech and have proven that warming and morearid conditions lead to decline of growth and vitality, while no decline was observed if EQ changed inthe opposite direction. The response to weather extremes was investigated in field plots. Recurrentsummer droughts of 3 to 4 consecutive years, above mean EQ value 40-42 resulted in pest and diseaseattacks and mass mortality.The discussed approaches indicate consistently a high level of uncertainty regarding the future ofbeech at the xeric limit in Southeast Europe. According to field observations and bioclimatic data inHungary, a large part of low-elevation beech forests presently in the zone of EQ index 20 might bethreatened by the warming in the second half of the century, while higher-elevation occurrences mayremain stable.The interpretation of the results bears some stipulations, such as the consequence of ecologicaland human interactions in influencing present distribution patterns, the unclear role of persistence,natural selection and plasticity and uncertainties of climate projections. Grim projections mayprobably be partly overwritten by the mentioned stipulations and by careful and prudent humansupport

Ember–számítógép-, valamint megjelenítő és elemző interfészek alkalmazási lehetőségei

Jelen cikkben az EFOP-3.6.1-16-2016- 00003 „K+F+I folyamatok hosszú távú megerősítése a Dunaújvárosi Egyetemen” című projekt keretében végzett kutatásaink egy része, elsősorban az ember-számítógép, a megjelenítő és elemző interfészek, továbbá a virtuális valóság témakörrel összefüggő kutatások és kutatási irányok kerülnek összefoglalásra

Sustainability of Forest Cover under Climate Change on the Temperate-Continental Xeric Limits

Climate change particularly threatens the xeric limits of temperate-continental forests. In Hungary, annual temperatures have increased by 1.2 °C–1.8 °C in the last 30 years and the frequency of extreme droughts has grown. With the aim to gain stand-level prospects of sustainability, we have used local forest site variables to identify and project effects of recent and expected changes of climate. We have used a climatic descriptor (FAI index) to compare trends estimated from forest datasets with climatological projections; this is likely for the first time such a comparison has been made. Four independent approaches confirmed the near-linear decline of growth and vitality with increasing hot droughts in summer, using sessile oak as model species. The correlation between droughts and the expansion of pest and disease damages was also found to be significant. Projections of expected changes of main site factors predict a dramatic rise of future drought frequency and, consequently, a substantial shift of forest climate classes, especially at low elevation. Excess water-dependent lowland forests may lose supply from groundwater, which may change vegetation cover and soil development processes. The overall change of site conditions not only causes economic losses, but also challenges long-term sustainability of forest cover at the xeric limits